The Odawg - that's me - was born into a family of Americans living abroad. After moving around for a while, my family settled in a nice midwestern town where I had a "normal" childhood. After going to college and getting a degree in engineering concerning things nautical, I've been working for various people in the maritime industry. Besides being born in Germany, I've lived in Oklahoma, Kansas, Indiana, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Mississippi, Texas, and Louisiana. The Dawg House is presently in New Orleans.
Odawg's Non-Vital Stats
NAME: Owen William Tredennick
AGE: Late 20's
MARITAL STATUS: Single, never married
ASPIRATIONS: Family. Travel. Living a complete life.
REGRETS: Not studying. Spending more and caring less. Holding back.
STRENGTHS: Good listener. Problem solver. Adventurous. Loyal.
This morning's NHC discussion paints a worrisome picture. Conditions are unfavorable for strengthening now, but as she moves west, that will change. Some 85 mph winds were recorded by a reconaissance plane this morning, but the central pressure has gone up and the satellite imagery shows decreasing organization. So she's not a hurricane yet, but she's close and could get there.
That's not really the worrisome part, at least for New Orleans. The discussion goes on to talk about "the guidance", which I'm guessing is the term NHC uses for their hurricane forecasting and prediction tools. That's where it gets it worrisome:
"THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS BRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES."
Fortunately for New Orleans, she's is the Carribean right now, moving west at 30 mph. That would send her plowing into Honduras, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.
Of course, the NWS discussion leads one to believe that Claudette could strengthen and take on a more northern track. Something about a weakness in a "strong subtropical ridge" being worsened by a "deep-layer trough" over the Eastern US...yadda yadda...Claudette ends up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and Owen and Lucie must board up the house again.
But the discussion goes on to read:
"HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION."
So the "current trends" suggest she goes west, not northwest. Fine. As usual, wait and see.
...is a big day in Iran this year. The anti-thugocracy student movement has been planning for weeks now massive protests against the mullahs for tomorrow. That's resulted in some harsh crackdowns by the ruling class, frequently using imported thugs.
How massive will the protests be? How much attention will they attract in the West? And how much can they impact the mullahs?
The stuff on this page represents whatever was on Odawg's mind when he typed it. I hope that you, the reader, are not too disappointed. After all, it's a big Web, and you wound up here. However that happened, I hope you enjoyed your stay, and I invite you to come again. This is written strictly for fun during Odawg's free time. Of course, no time really is free. So I'm honored you chose to spend some of your time here.